This working paper developed and applied an analytical and empirical modelling framework which integrates a goat flock growth model with an economic model for simulating goat meat and milk production for ex-ante assessment of the financial profitability of investment interventions to improve goat production in mixed crop–livestock and agro-pastoral and pastoral production systems in Ethiopia.
The results of bio-economic simulation analysis indicate that the combined investment interventions in goat health, feeding and management practices to reduce goat young stock and adult stock mortality are financially viable in two of the three production systems studied. The investment enhances Ethiopia’s goat meat and milk self-sufficiency ratio and has significant impact on goat keeper income. The implementation of the proposed combined investment interventions will require strong private and public partnerships and involve the rationalization and improvement of public and private sector veterinary service provisions and public investments.
Negassa, A., Gebremedhin, B., Desta, S., Nigussie, K., Gebru, G., Shapiro, B.I., Dutilly-Diane, C. and Tegegne, A. 2015. Integrated bio-economic simulation model for goat production: Ex-ante evaluation of investment opportunities in Ethiopia. LIVES Working Paper 8. Nairobi, Kenya: ILRI